What is the future development trend of air conditioners?

　　The uncertainty caused by the epidemic, the declining trend of real estate and the lack of money in the waistband made the air-conditioning industry enter a “cold year”, and the rise in raw material prices caused by geopolitics gave the air-conditioning industry a head start. Data show that in the first half of 2022, the retail volume and retail sales of the domestic air-conditioning market fell by 20.1% and 14.1% respectively year-on-year; throughout the cold year 2022, the retail volume and retail sales of the air-conditioning market were 43.57 million units and 150.5 billion yuan, down 15.0% and 9.2% respectively year-on-year.
　　The international situation is volatile, the epidemic, the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, Russia-Ukraine conflict of international events continue to impact the global economy, coupled with the growing conflict between China and the United States, from April this year, the export side has been difficult to achieve growth.
　　In terms of the white goods industry as a whole, total exports from China fell by 8.2% in the first half of the year. As a category of the white goods industry, air conditioners have naturally been affected. According to customs data, from January to August 2022, the cumulative sales volume of air conditioner exports was 37.15 million units, down 12% year-on-year, and the cumulative export value fell by 1.9% year-on-year.
　　The biggest hidden worry of the obstacle to go abroad is the rising cost, on the one hand, Chinese home appliance exporters have a large number of imported parts to rely on, in the context of global inflation, the high cost of air conditioning companies’ production costs remain high. On the other hand, the devaluation of the Renminbi is detrimental to imports, causing domestic prices to rise, and will consume the profits of domestic enterprises.
　　So, how long will the global recession last and when will air conditioning exports see growth?
　　World Bank President Malpas said on the US Consumer News & Business Channel on 19 September that the global economic slowdown could last until 2023 or even longer.
　　In addition, the Trade and Development Report 2022 released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development also pointed out that the rapid interest rate hikes and fiscal austerity policies implemented by developed economies, overlaid with the negative impact of the new crown epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have turned the global economy from a slowdown to a downward spiral, with a soft landing unlikely to materialise.
　　This shows that the global economic recession is already an irreversible trend, and the length of the recession cycle is determined by a number of factors, which means that the overseas exports of Chinese air conditioners will continue to be shrouded in the shadow of “uncertainties”.
　　In the development of anything, there are ups and downs.
　　And the domestic sales of good and negative foreign sales, for the current air conditioning industry, one side is the yin, the other side is the yang, after the reconciliation and integration, so that the mirror, so that the industry in the winter to forge ahead, once again into the blossom of the season.